Victor Shih

Victor Shih is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. He was the first analyst to identify the risk of massive local government debt, and is the author of “Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation.”

Shih is an associate professor of political economy and the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations. He is currently engaged in a study of how the coalition-formation strategies of founding leaders had a profound impact on the evolution of the Chinese Communist Party. He is also constructing a large database on biographical information of elites in China.

At GPS, Shih teaches courses including Financing the Chinese Miracle, Chinese Sources and Methods, Chinese Politics and Political Economy of Authoritarian Regimes.  

Prior to joining UC San Diego, Shih was a professor of political science at Northwestern University and former principal for The Carlyle Group.

Education and CV

Ph.D., Government, Harvard University, 2003
B.A., East Asian Studies, George Washington University, 1997
CV

GPS Spotlight

Through knowledge we gain understanding
Dec. 16, 2019 | Victor Shih models intellectual leadership and curiosity in his appointment as the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at GPS

Confronting China elite and financial politics
Feb. 16, 2016 | A preview of what to expect from Professor Victor Shih in his Destination GPS presentations in New York City and Washington, D.C.

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Working Papers

Lee, Jonghyuk and Victor Shih, “Locking in Fair Weather Friends: Assessing the Fate of Chinese Communist Elite when their Patrons Fall from Power,” 2018 (PDF)

Liu, Mingxing, Victor Shih and Pengfei Zhang, "Threats and Political Instability in Authoritarian Regimes: A Dynamic Theoretical Analysis," 2018 (PDF)

Liu, Mingxing, Victor Shih, Dong Zhang and Luke Qi Zhang, "Elite Cleavage and the Rise of Capitalism under Authoritarianism: A Tale of Two Provinces in China," 2018 (PDF)

Lee, Jonghyuk and Victor Shih, “Are Factions Self-Enforcing Contracts: Identifying the Impact of Patrons’ Promotions and Exits on the Careers of Clients,” 2016 (PDF)

Liu, Mingxing, Victor Shih and Dong Zhang, “The Fall of the Old Guards: Explaining Decentralization in China,” 2016 (PDF)