- Working Papers
Victor Shih is an associate professor of political economy and has published widely on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies and exchange rates. He was the first analyst to identify the risk of massive local government debt, and is the author of “Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation.”
Prior to joining UC San Diego, Shih was a professor of political science at Northwestern University and former principal for The Carlyle Group.
Shih is currently engaged in a study of how the coalition-formation strategies of founding leaders had a profound impact on the evolution of the Chinese Communist Party. He is also constructing a large database on biographical information of elites in China.
Education and CV
Ph.D., Government, Harvard University, 2003
B.A., East Asian Studies, George Washington University, 1997
Lee, Jonghyuk and Victor Shih, “Locking in Fair Weather Friends: Assessing the Fate of Chinese Communist Elite when their Patrons Fall from Power,” 2018 (PDF)
Liu, Mingxing, Victor Shih and Pengfei Zhang, "Threats and Political Instability in Authoritarian Regimes: A Dynamic Theoretical Analysis," 2018 (PDF)
Liu, Mingxing, Victor Shih, Dong Zhang and Luke Qi Zhang, "Elite Cleavage and the Rise of Capitalism under Authoritarianism: A Tale of Two Provinces in China," 2018 (PDF)
Lee, Jonghyuk and Victor Shih, “Are Factions Self-Enforcing Contracts: Identifying the Impact of Patrons’ Promotions and Exits on the Careers of Clients,” 2016 (PDF)
Liu, Mingxing, Victor Shih and Dong Zhang, “The Fall of the Old Guards: Explaining Decentralization in China,” 2016 (PDF)