Professor; Co-director, Policy Design and Evaluation Lab
Craig McIntosh is a professor of economics at the School and co-director of the Policy Design and Evaluation Lab. He is a development economist whose work focuses on program evaluation. His main research interest is the design of institutions that promote the provision of financial services to micro-entrepreneurs, and he has conducted field evaluations of innovative anti-poverty policies in Mexico, Guatemala, Malawi, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania.
He is currently working on research projects investigating how to boost savings among the poor, on whether schooling can be used as a tool to fight HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and on mechanisms to improve the long-term viability of fair trade markets.
As co-director of the Policy Design and Evaluation Lab, McIntosh is an expert on issues related to credit, insurance and savings markets in developing countries, as well as on how to evaluate policy impacts from how to design and conduct randomized field trials or impact assessments to how data or surveys can be used to conduct post assessments.
Before earning his Ph.D. in agricultural and resource economics from UC Berkeley, McIntosh did aid work in Somalia with the International Rescue Committee and spent a year on a Fulbright grant as a research director at FINCA/Uganda, a major microfinance lender.
Education and CV
Ph.D., Agricultural and Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, 2003
M.A., Agricultural and Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, 1999
B.A., Economics, UC Santa Cruz, 1993
Recent Working Papers
“How Technology Shapes the Crowd: VIP:Voice and Participation in the 2014 South African Election,” with Karen Ferree, Clark Gibson, Danielle Jung, and James Long.
“When the Money Runs Out: Evaluating the Longer-Term Impacts of a Two-Year Cash Transfer Program,” with Sarah Baird and Berk Ozler
“What Are the Headwaters of Formal Savings? Experimental Evidence from Sri Lanka,” with Michael Callen, Suresh de Mel, and Christopher Woodruff
“Utility, Risk, and Demand for Incomplete Insurance: Lab Experiments with Guatemalan Cooperatives,” with Felix Povel and Elisabeth Sadoulet"Designing Experiments to Measure Spillover and Threshold Effects," with Sarah Baird, Aislinn Bohren, and Berk Ozler.
"Infrastructure Upgrading and Budgeting Spillovers: Mexico’s Habitat Experiment” with Tito Alegría, Gerardo Ordóñez and René Zenteno.
“Fair Trade and Free Entry: Can a Disequilibrium Market Serve as a Development Tool?,” with Elisabeth Sadoulet and Alain de Janvry. Review of Economics and Statistics 97.3 (2015): 567-573.
"The Heterogeneous Effects of HIV Testing,” with Sarah Baird, Erick Gong, and Berk Özler. Journal of health economics, 37, 98-112."Deposit Collecting: Unbundling the Role of Frequency, Salience, and Habit Formation in Generating Savings," with Suresh de Mel and Christopher Woodruff. American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, May 2013.
“The Regressive Demands of Demand-Driven Development," [link to mcintosh_publications_regressive.pdf] with Sarah Baird and Berk Ozler. Journal of Public Economics (2013), pp. 27-41.
“ALCANCES E IMPACTOS DEL PROGRAMA HABITAT EN COMUNIDADES POBRES URBANAS DE MÉXICO," with Tito Alegria, Gerardo Ordonez, and Rene Zenteno. Papeles de Poblacion, forthcoming.
“Productivity, Credit, Risk, and the Demand for Weather Index Insurance in Smallholder Agriculture in Ethiopia," with Alexander Sarris and Fotis Papodopoulos, Agricultural Economics (44), 2013.
“The Ecological Footprint of Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from Mexico’s Oportunidades Program,” with Jennifer Alix-Garcia, Kate Sims, and Jarrod Welch. Forthcoming, Review of Economics and Statistics.
“Prompting Microfinance Borrowers to Save: A Field Experiment From Guatemala," with Jesse Atkinson, Alain de Janvry, and Elisabeth Sadoulet. Forthcoming, Economic Development and Cultural Change.
“Reputation in a Public Goods Game: Taking the Design of Credit Bureaus to the Lab,” with Steven Buck, Tomas Rosada, and Elisabeth Sadoulet. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, September 2012.
“Birth Rates and Border Crossings: Latin American Emigration to the US, Canada, Spain, and the UK” with Gordon Hanson. Economic Journal, June 2012.
“Effect of a Cash Transfer Programme for Schooling on Prevalence of HIV and Herpes Simplex Type 2 in Malawi: A Cluster Randomized Trial,” with Sarah Baird, Richard Garfein, and Berk Özler. Lancet, February 2012.
“Monitoring Repayment in Online Peer-to-Peer Lending," in Peter Gourevitch, David A. Lake, and Janice Stein, eds., Beyond Virtue: Evaluating the Credibility of Non-Governmental Organizations (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2012).
“Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Randomized Cash Transfer Program,” with Sarah Baird and Berk Ozler. Quarterly Journal of Economics (126), 2011.
“The Supply and Demand Side Impacts of Credit Market Information,” with Alain de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet. Journal of Development Economics 93(2), 2010.
“The Demography of Mexican Migration to the US,” with Gordon Hanson, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, January 2009, 99:2, pp. 1-9.
“The Short-Term Impacts of a Schooling Conditional Cash Transfer Program on the Sexual Behavior of Young Women,” with Sarah Baird, Ephraim Chirwa, and Berk Özler. Forthcoming, Health Economics.
“Tracking the Introduction of the Village Phone Product in Rwanda,” with Michael Futch, Forthcoming, Information Technologies in International Development.
"Microfinance and Home Improvement: Using Retrospective Panel Data to Measure Program Effects on Fundamental Events," with Gonzalo Villaran and Bruce Wydick. Forthcoming, World Development.
"Using the Error in Pre-Election Polls to Test for the Presence of Pork," with Jacob Allen. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy (Contributions), Vol. 9, Issue 1, 2009.
"The Great Mexican Emigration," with Gordon Hanson (NBER, Working Paper, 13675). Forthcoming, Review of Economics and Statistics.
“Estimating Treatment Effects from Spatial Policy Experiments: An Application to Ugandan Microfinance,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 7(06), February 2008.
“The Effectiveness of Listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act: An Econometric Analysis Using Matching Methods,” with Paul Ferraro and Monica Ospina. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 54, 2007.
“Credit Information Systems in Less-Developed Countries: A Test with Microfinance in Guatemala,” with Jill Luoto and Bruce Wydick. January 2007, Economic Development and Cultural Change.
“How Rising Competition among Microfinance Institutions Affects Incumbent Lenders,”, with Alain de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet, The Economic Journal 115, October 2005, pp. 987-1004.
“Competition and Microfinance,” with Bruce Wydick, Journal of Development Economics 78, December 2005, pp. 271-298.